I like your work, but would encourage you to look up and not down for a cause of the weirdness (it's literally snowing in most of California today) that we are experiencing this year. Whether you are a fan of snow, here is the latest roundup of what meteorologists are saying about the weather in the coming months. NOAA Climate.gov image, based on precipitation data from NOAAs Precipitation Reconstruction over Land (PREC/L). To analyze the effect of different sea surface temperature patterns on early-winter precipitation in the Southwest during La Nia, I first defined two groups: the wettest 20% and driest 20% of simulations. Most of Europe is forecast to have less snow depth by mid-winter. This year La Nia returns for the third consecutive winter, driving warmer-than-average temperatures for the Southwest and along the Gulf Coast and eastern seaboard, according to NOAAs U.S. Winter Outlook released today by the Climate Prediction Center a division of the National Weather Service. Find out in our long-range forecast for the winter season. I also like the idea that MJO may have been a factor, BTW I am not a weather scientist just a life long weather geek, Submitted by Craig T on Tue, 02/28/2023 - 20:15. Starting with the seasonal average for Europe, we can see another weak snowfall forecast similar to the ECMWF. Submitted by rebecca.lindsey on Thu, 02/23/2023 - 10:32. Probably the coupling of weak Polar vortex with the recurrent PV stratospheric warming has something to do with the Southward (equator-wise) migration of Atmospheric wet Rivers in mid to late winter , this last point is well-documented in many physical science papers that weak polar vortex post SSW events tend to measure more equator-wise migration of the Jetstream causing these atmospheric rivers to bring wetter than normal events to California and many mediterranean-like climates in the northern hemisphere late winter. You can see that jet stream redirection in the image below. - 29 US states are under winter weather alerts as people brace for a winter storm expected to bring heavy snow . In the West, generally dry conditions will do little to ease the regions persistent drought. Jasmine Blackwell,jasmine.blackwell@noaa.gov, (202) 841-9184, Drought to persist in Great Plains, parts of West and expand, Audio: October 20 virtual media briefing on Winter Outlook 2022, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Winter Outlook: Warmer, drier South with ongoing La Nina. Rain, heavy at times, will sweep quickly north-eastwards across most parts. UKMO uses a different parameter than the ECMWF but correlates directly with snowfall also. ) or https:// means youve safely connected to the .gov website. Distribution of DecemberJanuary precipitation anomalies (percent of the 1991-2020 climatology) in the Southwest U.S. (region defined in the figure above) for all 21 La Nias from 1951-2020. Thank you for your comment, and I agree that the influence of the stratosphere on seasonal predictability and predictions is an important topic that deserves continued focus. No cold event has gone into the 4th year in the known records, so it is expected that we will see the last La Nina phase this season for a while. The bottom line is that La Nia may tilt the odds toward dry early winter conditions in the Southwest, but La Nia clearly does not eliminate the chance of wet conditions either. The almanac forecasts cold and wet conditions down even into Florida, with the worst of the cold forecast for January. A larger deficit can be seen over northern Europe and the Alps. I saw this same behavior in my analysis of the SPEAR climate model simulations, which increases confidence that this more robust dry signal in February-March is a real phenomenon. The precipitation anomalies are divided into 10 evenly spaced bins, and the number of La Nia events is totaled for each bin. We have also produced an image that shows the snowfall forecast change compared to the forecast from the previous month. Mostly dry but the risk of showers towards the evening which could turn wintry across high ground. Reporting on Earths changing climate and the people trying to find solutions to one of the biggest challenges of our era. Southwest U.S. Newfoundland, Labrador; Nova Scotia, Prince Edward, New Brunswick, Quebec; Ontario; Alberta, Manitoba, Saskatchewan; British Columbia; 2023 Summer Extended Forecast; 2022-2023 Extended Winter Forecast; 2022-2023 Canadian Extended Winter Forecast; 20 Signs Of A Hard Winter Ahead; Weather Lore; Weather History; Our Forecast Accuracy What does the latest ocean analysis data show, and what influence did it play on temperature and snowfall patterns in the past? It's important to keep in mind that not every location in the Southwest has been wetter than normal lately. Long-range weather forecast for winter 2022 and temperature predictions The Met Office has warned that snow may appear across the north and west of the UK as early as 9 November A snowy. But we can still see an area of more snowfall potential in the Southeast, which can be a single large event. If skies are clear, temperatures can fall gradually day-by-day because the sun is weak and there is little cloud to keep in any heat at night. Precipitation-wise, La Nina winters are usually drier over the southern United States. The February snow depth forecast shows continued increased snowfall potential over the northwestern United States and expanding over western and southern Canada. Check out the full 2022-23 Extended Winter Weather Forecast from The Farmer's Almanac below. I am wondering if there is a possibility that the triple-dip La Nina event from 2020 could create some kinds of conditions that make atmospheric rivers more active, resulting in the occurrence of torrential rains over the western United States. 2022-2023 California and Southwest Weather Thread $13.99 buys a year's worth of wisdom in the palm of your hands, online community access and a 2023 Farmers' Almanac ! The most important ingredients for snowfall are the air being cold enough and a supply of moisture. Drought improvement in the Southwest continues As of July 26, 2022, over 50% of the contiguous U.S. was in drought, with almost 20% in the two worst categories, extreme and exceptional drought (D3-4), a slight increase since late June. From the United States to Canada and over Europe, we will look at the latest Full snowfall forecasts and trends, extending the view into early Spring. Submitted by Craig T on Thu, 03/02/2023 - 18:31, In reply to forecast busts by Nathaniel.Johnson, Submitted by Nathaniel.Johnson on Fri, 03/03/2023 - 10:31, Minor correction. We see an increased snow potential over the upper Midwest, with some other areas across the Midwest having normal snowfall amounts forecast this month (0/white areas). Feeling cold. Winter Forecast for Southwest Michigan for 2022/2023 Impactful Winter Weather On the Way A storm system will move into Lower Michigan for Friday, bringing primarily snow but some light freezing rain could mix in across the far south. AccuWeather says that the lingering water vapor in the atmosphere from the eruption could cause a warmer winter than normal but that the magnitude of the effect is unknown. All I can say is that I don't have any reason to rule it out as a contributor, and I think this idea will be explored more in the years ahead. The greatest chances for drier-than-average conditions are forecast in portions of California, the Southwest, the southern Rockies, southern Plains, Gulf Coast and much of the Southeast. Difficult to impossible travel across wide swaths of U.S. due to coast-to-coast storm. The next image below shows the change in the snow depth forecast between the latest model data and the previous model run. Sea Surface Temperature AnomalyDecember 2010. Thanks for your comment, Craig. Are you Weather-Ready for spring hazards? We received 6.45 inches of precipitation (that includes snowfall as liquid equivalent), which is a whopping 3.53 inches above normal - more than double the . The greatest chances for drier-than-average conditions are forecast in portions of California, the Southwest, the southern Rockies, the southern Plains, the Gulf Coast, and much of the Southeast. However, for the UK, being an island surrounded by the milder water, the air can often warm up slightly before it reaches our shores, and we often see rain rather than snow, or, even trickier to forecast; a mix of rain, sleet and snow.. Rishi Sunak set to unveil new laws to tackle small boat crossings in Channel next week, Government WhatsApp decision-making threatens 'accountability', warns Information Commissioner, Snow and ice warning as coldest day of year so far to hit UK as temperatures plummet, continues to experience unusually warm temperatures this October, 'How bad are the pics? A somewhat subjective rating of the day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10. the Desert Southwest if another snow-lacking . Europe features mostly warmer than normal conditions over northern parts, with a storm track over the southwest . . Not sure how much that was a factor. This video and related map images can also be accessed online at www.climate.gov/winter2022-23. During the meteorological winter (December 1 through February 28) of 2022-23, average temperatures ranged from 16.7F at Medford, WI (COOP) to 25.7F at Boscobel Airport, WI (ASOS). The ENSO blog is written, edited, and moderated by Michelle LHeureux (NOAA Climate Prediction Center), Emily Becker (University of Miami/CIMAS), Nat Johnson (NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory), and Tom DiLiberto and Rebecca Lindsey (contractors to NOAA Climate Program Office), with periodic guest contributors. The most dynamic winter weather is usually found between the warm and cold anomalies in the Midwest and the central United States. However, December may put the brakes on this, with a strong signal for this month to be much cooler than average. . Is there any other teleconnections that can offer an explanation as to why certain La Nina years were wet in california like FY10/11. But if these big picture findings hold up to further scrutiny, then it means that the typical or averaged La Nia precipitation pattern still may be the most reliable guide for seasonal predictions of Southwest precipitation in early winter, but we may have to rely on subseasonal and weather forecasts rather than seasonal outlooks to anticipate the sort of soaking that occurred in December and January of this winter. If youre wondering what sort of calculations led to this conclusion, then I will give you all the details here. Chris Bilbrey, a forecaster with the Colorado Avalanche Information Center, digs a pit with Rebecca Hodgetts, southern mountains lead . UK should prepare for severe winter floods, Environment Agency warns, UK's first ever space launch nears as Spaceport Cornwall gets go ahead, Download the yourweather.co.uk Android App for free, Download the yourweather.co.uk iOS App for free, Download the yourweather.co.uk Huawei App for free, Download the yourweather.co.uk Windows 10 App for free. Submitted by Matt on Thu, 02/23/2023 - 11:44. AccuWeather meteorologists break down which areas will. Three events went neutral in the third year, and three phases shifted into an El Nino in the third season. The February snow depth forecast shows the snowfall potential reducing further over most of Europe. So, next, we want to know if there are any consistent differences in the sea surface temperature pattern between La Nias that lead to wet versus dry early winters in the Southwest. the Southwest, the southern Rockies, southern Plains, Gulf Coast and . The colder air is more easily accessible to the northern United States, which increases the snowfall potential if enough moisture is available. We will go over the Precipitation, Temperatures, Snowfall, and our Exciting Overall Forecast! Besides the northwestern United States and the Midwest, we can see more snowfall potential over the northeastern United States and eastern Canada. With the La Nia climate pattern still in place, drought conditions may also expand to the Gulf Coast.. But what does that mean for snowfall potential? The effects of air rising up hills and mountains must also be considered. Remaining very mild. That doesnt mean that the different flavors of La Nia cannot be important for Southwest U.S. precipitation, and its worth trying to better understand the simulated La Nia precipitation variations. Images by NOAA Physical Science Laboratory. Apparently 24 years ago the NWS office for Flagstaff moved from the airport to a community(Bellemont) just west of Flagstaff. Have a comment on this page? Due to arctic amplification (or not) the jet steam has been "wavy" this winter bringing colder than average temperatures to the SW (I live in Tucson) and unusual warmth to the east. By Eva Hagan. Drought is expected to impact the middle and lower Mississippi Valley this winter. Seasonal Forecast for February - April 2023. So what exactly does this mean for the winter weather patterns and snowfall potential? The image below shows the average pressure pattern during the La Nina winters in the past 40 years. This is a region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean that changes between warm and cold phases. The blue bars indicate the chance of La Nia for each three-month period into winter 2022-23, according to this forecast from early May 2022. . How will the Hunga Tonga volcanic eruption play into the forecast? AccuWeather long-range forecasters are predicting that 40 to 50 inches will accumulate in the city, around the average snowfall amount of 49.2 inches. When we plug those values in, we get (0.725)2/(0.194)2 = 14, which is why I conclude that chaotic weather variations are about 14 times more important than the variations caused by sea surface temperature variations for December-January Southwest U.S. precipitation during La Nia events. Note that even the most scientifically advanced seasonal outlooks cannot pinpoint what the weather will be in a particular place at a particular time this far in advance. Annual snowfall in the Twin Cities based on the modern 30-year average (1981-2010) is 54 inches, so AccuWeather's range falls between 40 and 67 inches. As we emphasize on the blog, ENSO may tilt the odds toward one outcome or the other, but the forecast is always probabilistic. However, we still need more analysis to see if the particular sea surface temperature pattern this year played some role, including the unusual frequency of atmospheric rivers. Submitted by Nathaniel.Johnson on Tue, 02/28/2023 - 15:50. This is referring to the kind of divide where one half of the U.S. could be blistering cold, while the other will be so mild. Video. This will most likely result in wintry showers, these turning more organised at times in the north and east. As the figure above shows, much of the western U.S. was pummeled from late December through mid-January, as a series of nine atmospheric rivers dumped more than a seasons worth of rain and snow in a few short weeks. Even the wettest December-January event before this year, 1955/56, was drier-than-average in February-March, demonstrating that a wet early winter doesnt necessarily mean a wet late winter. NOAAs Climate Prediction Center updates the three-month outlook each month. All rights reserved. The widely followed youtube weather channel, is calling for a mixed bag of weather this upcoming winter season. The rest of the United States is forecast to receive less snowfall than normal this month, with the expectation of the far northeastern United States and parts of the southeast. From February to April, above-normal temperatures are projected to continue along the East Coast, in the Southeast and into the Southwest, with the greatest chance of warmer weather along the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast coastlines as well as parts of the Southwest. When we average across all outcomes, we filter out the effects of chaotic climate variability (3). More snowfall is also seen over parts of the upper Midwest. We cannot rule out the possibility that the model is missing some sort of predictable connection between a particular flavor of La Nia sea surface temperatures and Southwest precipitation. I also have noted that the tropical atmosphere has been more persistently La Nina-like than the Nino region sea surface temperatures in recent months. Its conceivable that such differences could influence precipitation in the Southwest U.S., but these differences are much smaller than the amplitude of the largest average La Nia tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies, which approach 2 Therefore, it is difficult to see how such small sea surface temperature differences could have an influence that is comparable with the average La Nia influence. Temperatures overall will be below average but may gradually trend up later. Could the jet stream also have influenced precipitation amounts ? Surprisingly to me, the SST correlation pattern did not project strongly onto the mean La Nina SST anomaly pattern, as one might expect if the dominant effect was a linear amplitude effect. And we can expect plenty of it this winter, according to the Farmers' Almanac, which recently released its 2022-23 Extended Weather Forecast. It looks like an interesting study, and it relates to last month's blog post on the discrepancy between observed and modeled Pacific sea surface temperature trends. We'll let you know if/when he does! Overall, however, the winter season is not predicted to be overly wet. December 2022 looks stormy and cold nationwide with an active storm pattern developing and hanging around for most of the season over the eastern half of the country." In the Great Lakes region,. This would likely bring a risk of chilly nights with mist, frost and fog in places, with some snow possible in any showers in northern and western areas, especially over high ground.. We're just a few days into meteorological winter and something rather interesting is stirring. We can also see more snowfall hinted in this run over southern Great Britain. Perhaps more relevant for this discussion, the teleconnections forced by the MJO also can interfere with those of ENSO. La Nina does change the weather globally, but apart from the direct influence over North America, places like Europe have many other factors in circulation before any La Nina influence can spread this far. into central Pacific vs. east Pacific La Nia events, we end up with a pretty small sample size. The pattern seems to be under the influence of a high-pressure system, as the forecast does not permit a lot of large-scale snowfall scenarios and snow accumulation. NOAA Official precipitation outlook points: Also, we will keep you updated on other developing weather trends, so bookmark our page. It's an event unprecedented in our lifetimes. The Majority of these Atmospheric Rivers have missed this area and only the last month has some of the area received measurable Moisture. 30 forecast for Winnetka! The December snow depth forecast shows less snow cover over most of the United States and Canada. Rick Wiley / Arizona Daily Star Facebook March came in like a lion, indeed. This results in 21 values covering all historical La Nias during the period for which the noise of chaotic weather variability has been largely averaged out. As I watch another 2 feet of snow fall today in what is now the wettest winter in Flagstaff in 30+ years, a couple things stand out: The active MJO clearly has been a bigger influence on West Coast and SW weather this season. The next update will be available November 17. Pastelok said that the warmer ocean temperatures could help to fuel a potentially big system that could affect the East Coast in the latter half of winter. The almanac, which releases an annual long-range. From my experience, the superposition of the ENSO and MJO teleconnections can be treated as linearly additive, so the MJO influence (like what's shown here) can constructively or destructively interfere with the expected ENSO influence. Between 9 and 23 November there could be an increasing chance of settled weather from mid-month, bringing a potential for colder, drier weather especially for the north and west, it said. Just wanted to Note that not all of the Southwest is receiving Robust Moisture. Turning to Slide 5. The question is, whats different about those years? This is calculated as the deviation of the 30 ensemble members from the average for each individual La Nia event, and so I wind up with a total of 630 deviations from the ensemble average that capture precipitation variations resulting from the uncertainty in the initial conditions, i.e., chaotic weather variability. Also, CPC data reveals an East Pacific MJO episode in January. 16 day. Difference in DecemberJanuary precipitation anomalies (percent of the 1991-2020 climatology) between the wettest 20% and driest 20% of Southwestern U.S. La Nia outcomes simulated by the GFDL SPEAR climate model. It was the largest snowfall of the season so far for Halifax and other communities of Nova Scotia. Light winds. This way, the ENSO significantly impacts tropical rainfall and pressure patterns, strongly changing the atmosphere-ocean feedback system. December finally brings the cold. Rains by Scott Yuknis. Drought development is expected to occur across the South-central and Southeastern U.S., while drought conditions are expected to improve across the Northwestern U.S. over the coming months. Submitted by Nathaniel.Johnson on Wed, 03/01/2023 - 19:55, In reply to Atmospheric rivers by Jiwon Kim. Thanks for doing those simulations, and for sharing the results here. This is only the 2nd time there has been above normal winter rainfall, Submitted by Craig T on Thu, 03/02/2023 - 08:09, In reply to jet stream by Nathaniel.Johnson. We will take a closer look at the weather influence that La Nina usually shows over North America, which is under a more direct influence. AccuWeather 's approach to concocting the winter forecast . Biden set for first veto on Senate bill opposing climate-friendly investing, Global carbon dioxide emissions hit new highs last year, says IEA report, Young women are criticized for this vocal tic but it helps whales survive, winter outlook from WeatherBell Analytics. Their study states these types of events result in a different atmospheric response. The exact value may change depending on what metric you use, but the overall conclusion shouldnt change. So, I did not see any obviously linear effect of La Nina amplitude in the observational analysis. This is not too far from the ECMWF prediction, but we generally see more snowfall in the northern United States. The Farmers' Almanac just released its winter 2022 extended forecast report, and for the most part, winter will be pretty chilly for all of the country, but with some major fluctuations in. The most common wind direction in the UK is south-westerly though, so more often than not we get relatively mild air from the Atlantic bringing rain, rather than this cold air from the north and east which often turns any rain to snow.. You can see that more snowfall is being forecast across much of the western United States compared to the previous forecast. This model has been quite consistent with low snow accumulation since the early September runs.